Menghitung Peluang Timnas Indonesia ke Semifinal ASEAN Championship 2024

Teguh Kurniawan

Editor: Teguh Kurniawan

ASEAN Championship 2024 digelar mulai 8 Desember 2024 hingga 5 Januari 2025 (Jovi Arnanda/Skor.id).
ASEAN Championship 2024 merupakan ajang yang melelahkan bagi Timnas Indonesia yang menempuh perjalanan panjang dan jadwal padat selama turnamen. (Jovi Arnanda/Skor.id)

SKOR.id - Timnas Indonesia bakal melakoni laga hidup-mati untuk menentukan kelolosan mereka ke semifinal ASEAN Championship 2024.

Itu terjadi saat pasukan Shin Tae-yong menjamu Filipina di Stadion Manahan, Solo, Sabtu (21/12/2024) malam.

Timnas Indonesia harus bisa mengalahkan sang rival pada duel pamungkas Grup B demi menjaga asa melaju ke babak empat besar. 

Namun, itu pun ternyata belum bisa menjadi jaminan. Hasil laga lain, yakni antara Vietnam menghadapi Myanmar, pada saat yang sama, juga perlu diperhatikan.

Sebagai informasi, Timnas Indonesia kini berada di peringkat kedua Grup B ASEAN Championship 2024. Mereka memiliki perolehan identik dengan Myanmar, yang menguntit di posisi ketiga, cuma unggul head to head.

Kedua tim sama-sama mengoleksi empat poin hasil satu menang, satu imbang, dan satu kalah, serta mencetak empat gol dan kebobolan empat. Bedanya, saat kedua tim bertemu, Indonesia unggul tipis 1-0.

Persoalannya adalah ASEAN Championship tidak mengutamakan head to head sebagai tolok ukur kelolosan.

Berdasarkan aturan mereka, urutan penentu tiket ke semifinal adalah poin, selisih gol, dan produktivitas. Ketika semua metrik ini setara, barulah head to head dipergunakan.

Jadi, jika kasusnya seperti Timnas Indonesia dan Myanmar, skor laga pamungkas akan sangat vital.

Apabila pasukan Garuda mengalahkan Filipina dengan margin satu gol, maka Myanmar jangan sampai menang dengan skor lebih besar atas Vietnam.

Dan, ketika keduanya bermain imbang, maka pertandingan dengan gol terbanyak akan dipilih. 

Misal, Indonesia ditahan Filipina dengan skor 1-1, sementara Myanmar mampu mengimbangi Vietnam 2-2, pasukan Myo Hlaing Win lah yang akan finis di peringkat kedua Grup B.

Oleh karena itu, saat bertarung dengan Filipina nanti, Marselino Ferdinan dan kawan-kawan tak cuma wajib menang, tapi harus unggul meyakinkan.

Tentu saja kemungkinan terburuk tetap ada, yaitu jika Timnas Indonesia kalah dari Filipina. Seandainya terjadi seperti ini, The Azkals berpeluang menyodok sebagai runner-up, dengan syarat Myanmar gagal membuat kejutan di kandang Vietnam.

Realistisnya, Indonesia masih memiliki peluang terbesar finis di tangga kedua. Mereka main di kandang dan mendapat dukungan puluhan ribu suporter. Sebaliknya, Myanmar akan melakoni laga berat di kandang Vietnam.

Sekarang, tinggal bagaimana pasukan Shin Tae-yong memaksimalkan keuntungan yang ada.

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